Nigerian Inflation Rate Moderates 38 Basis Points in September

Nigerian Inflation Rate Moderates 38 Basis Points in September

Nigerian headline inflation rate moderates 38 basis points in September 2021 to 16.63% year on year from 17.01% year on year in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows. 

On a month-on-month basis, Nigerian headline inflation increased by 13 basis points to 1.15%. The outturn is 14 basis points higher than Cordros Capital estimate of 16.49% with the largest deviation stemming from the food basket. 

Ahead of the September data release, analysts have predicted moderation in consumer price index due to base effect in 2021, rather than strategic policy measures. Today, NBS reported that Consumer Price Index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 16.63 per cent (year-on-year) in September 2021.

This is 0.38 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in August 2021 (17.01) per cent. Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline Index.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.15 per cent in September 2021, translating to a 0.13 per cent rate higher than the rate recorded in August 2021 (1.02) per cent.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending September 2021 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 16.83 per cent, showing a 0.23 per cent point from 16.60 per cent recorded in July 2021.

The Urban Inflation rate increased by 17.19 per cent in September 2021 from 17.59 per cent recorded in August 2021, while the Rural Inflation rate increased by 16.08 per cent in September 2021 from 16.45 per cent in August 2021.

On a month-on-month basis, the Urban Index rose by 1.21 per cent in September 2021, up by 0.15 the rate recorded in August 2021 (1.06), while the Rural Index also rose by 1.10 per cent in September 2021, up by 0.11 the rate that was recorded in August 2021 (0.99) per cent

The Composite Food Index rose by 19.57 per cent in September 2021 compared to 20.30 per cent in August 2021. This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of oils and fats, bread and cereals, food product N.E.C., fish, coffee, tea and cocoa, potatoes, yam and other tuber and milk, cheese and egg.

On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.26 per cent in September 2021, up by 0.20 per cent points from 1.06 per cent recorded in August 2021.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending September 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 20.71 per cent, 0.21 per cent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in August 2021 (20.50) per cent.

The ‘’all items less farm produce’’ or core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 13.74 per cent in September 2021, up by 0.33 per cent when compared with 13.41 per cent recorded in August 2021.

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.24 per cent in September 2021. This was up by 0.47 per cent when compared with 0.77 per cent recorded in August 2021.

NBS said the highest increases were recorded in prices of gas, household textile, garments, motor car, game of chance, major household appliances whether electric or not, passenger transport by air, and hospital services.

This includes other services with respect to personal transport equipment, wine, clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories, non-durable household goods.

It said the average twelve-month annual rate of change of the index was 12.55 per cent for the twelve-month period ending September 2021; representing 0.26 per cent points higher than the 12.29 per cent recorded in August 2021. #Nigerian Inflation Rate Moderates 38 Basis Points in September